Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Experts Cause Failure?
The Carter Racing statistics were something that we were all asked to analyze. Some of our classmates said that the company should indeed not race. While others of us thought they should. Thinking that these statistics were for a racing team the resounding point behind our race decisions was coming from, "we're racers, that's what we do!". However when told that these statistics were actually from the space rocket launch I think many of our minds changed. The idea that a rocket could have almost a 30% chance of engine failure seems to change the book.Experts had all the data that we were provided with and they choose to launch the rocket. What were they thinking? They put lives in danger on only a 70% rate of success, this does not seem large enough for them to make a yes decision. While I realize the experts had more information than we did, they were still presented with the same realities that the space ship did not have all the kinks worked out. The Challenger launch caused 7 people to lose their lives while the entire country watched. I cannot understand what these experts were thinking.
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Yeah I agree with you, when it was all about a simple race the decision was fairly simple but you throw in such a tragic subject matter and with even the simple data we had our opinions all changed when we found out about the challenger. I guess it was kind of a hit it big thing and be one of the few to see space or take the risk that they all knew when they signed up for the mission. I'm sure we don't have all the facts but even with the data we had I don't believe the risk was worth the reward. All they had to do was wait til a warmer day and maybe those 7 people would still be here.
ReplyDeleteYou make an interesting point. It's interesting how many groups said, "Go ahead and race!" when we were still under the impression that the information pertained to racing. However when were told the truth, that the information was actually about the challenger launch, the 30% chance of failure was way too high and most groups seemed to change their answer to don't race, well launch. I just find it interesting how almost every groups decision changed when we found out that the stakes were much higher.
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